Armed militants linked to Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an Al-Qaeda-aligned extremist group active across the Sahel, launched a coordinated wave of attacks throughout February, carrying out more than 30 assaults primarily targeting security forces in Burkina Faso and neighboring Niger.
Conflict analysts monitoring militant activity say the offensive reflects growing instability across the region and intensifying rivalry among extremist factions operating in the Sahel.
The escalation reportedly follows the defection of a senior commander from JNIM to the rival Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP), a development that may have triggered concerns about internal divisions within militant networks.
Offensive Begins Near Niger Border
The first major assault of the campaign took place on February 4, when militants attacked a military base in Makalondi in western Niger, an area close to the border with Burkina Faso and near where the commander’s defection was reportedly observed.
Following the initial attack, the focus of militant operations shifted westward into Burkina Faso. Dozens of additional attacks targeted military installations as well as members of the state-backed Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP), a civilian auxiliary force supporting national security operations.
Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), which tracks global conflict patterns, indicates that the offensive resulted in the deaths of multiple soldiers, forest guards, and local militia members across several regions.
Most of the attacks were concentrated in Burkina Faso’s Est, Centre-Nord, and Nord regions, areas that have repeatedly faced militant incursions and insurgent activity over recent years.
Internal Rivalries Fuel Escalation
Security experts say the reported defection of a JNIM commander to ISSP may have heightened tensions within militant ranks, raising fears among JNIM leadership that additional fighters could defect to rival factions.
According to analysts monitoring the conflict, the scale and coordination of the February offensive suggest the group may have been attempting to demonstrate strength and reinforce internal cohesion following the defection.
The attacks also appear to reflect tactical methods often associated with Islamic State-linked groups, including simultaneous or large-scale assaults on security forces. Analysts believe such operations may be intended to project power and discourage further defections within militant networks.
Violence Expanding Toward Coastal West Africa
The latest surge in attacks also highlights a broader shift in militant strategy as extremist groups push further south toward the coastal states of West Africa.
In northern Benin, militants linked to Al-Qaeda recently claimed responsibility for an attack on an army base that killed at least 15 soldiers, signaling that violence associated with the Sahel insurgency is spreading beyond its traditional battlegrounds.
For years, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali have formed the core conflict zone of the Sahel insurgency. Armed groups have exploited porous borders, limited state control in rural areas, and long-standing governance challenges to expand their operations.
Regional Security Under Increasing Pressure
The Sahel has become one of the most volatile security environments in the world over the past decade. Militant organizations affiliated with both Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State have steadily increased attacks across the region.
Analysts say extremist groups continue to take advantage of political instability, economic hardship, and limited government presence across vast rural areas, allowing them to move across borders and establish influence in remote communities.
Security specialists warn that without stronger regional cooperation and more coordinated counter-insurgency strategies, militant groups may continue expanding their reach toward coastal West African countries along the Gulf of Guinea.
With tensions growing between rival extremist factions and attacks spreading into new areas, the coming months could prove critical for the future security landscape of the Sahel.