Southern Africa is once again living through the brutal reality of climate whiplash. Just weeks after devastating floods in Mozambique left dozens dead and thousands displaced, the broader region is bracing for the return of drought conditions that have become all too familiar. In South Africa, the Presidential Climate Commission is using the moment to reframe the conversation: climate policy must stop being seen as a constraint and start becoming a driver of industrial growth, infrastructure renewal and green jobs. With 2026 on track to be one of the hottest years on record and La Niña patterns intensifying extremes, the stakes could not be higher.
The images coming out of Mozambique this week are heartbreakingly familiar: swollen rivers bursting their banks, families wading through knee-deep water carrying whatever possessions they could salvage, and rescue teams working around the clock. At least two dozen people have died in the latest floods, with thousands more displaced. Yet this is not an isolated disaster. It is the latest swing in the flood-drought whiplash that has come to define Southern Africa’s climate reality.
Scientists tracking the region’s weather patterns say the whiplash effect is becoming the new normal. Heavy rains followed by prolonged dry spells, or vice versa, are now routine rather than exceptional. With 2026 shaping up to be one of the hottest years on record and La Niña conditions expected to intensify later in the year, the Presidential Climate Commission in South Africa is using the moment to push a bolder message: climate policy must stop being framed as a burden on industry and instead become a powerful driver of growth, jobs and infrastructure renewal.
Mozambique’s Tragedy and the Regional Pattern
The floods in central and northern Mozambique follow a pattern seen repeatedly over the past decade. In 2024 Cyclone Freddy brought record rainfall; in 2025 similar systems devastated parts of the country. Each time the human and economic cost is enormous. Roads, schools and health clinics are washed away, crops are destroyed, and disease outbreaks follow in the floodwaters. The broader Southern African region – from Zimbabwe and Zambia to parts of South Africa – is experiencing the same volatility. Rivers that were bone-dry last season are now in flood, while other areas that received heavy rain are already showing signs of drying out.
The Presidential Climate Commission’s latest briefing notes that these extremes are no longer “once-in-a-century” events. They are happening with increasing frequency because of a warming atmosphere that holds more moisture, combined with La Niña-driven shifts that amplify regional weather patterns. The result is a region that is simultaneously too wet and too dry – often in the same year.
South Africa’s Climate Commission: Policy as Growth Driver
In Pretoria the Presidential Climate Commission is refusing to treat these events as inevitable. Its 2026 work programme explicitly frames climate action as an industrial opportunity. The redevelopment of the Komati coal power station is a flagship example. Instead of simply closing the plant, the project is turning the site into a hub for renewable energy, green hydrogen and skills training. Eskom grid upgrades – long criticised for their slow pace – are being accelerated with a focus on resilience against both floods and droughts. Just transition financing is being reimagined not as welfare but as investment in new industries that can absorb workers from declining coal sectors.
Commission chairperson Rudi Dicks has been blunt in recent briefings: “We cannot afford to see climate policy as a constraint on growth. It must become the engine that drives new investment, new jobs and new industrial capacity.” The message is resonating in boardrooms and at the South African Investment Conference, where President Ramaphosa has repeatedly positioned decarbonisation as a competitive advantage rather than a cost.
Budget Criticism: Not Fast-Tracking Enough
Not everyone is convinced the pace is sufficient. Opposition parties and civil society groups have criticised the latest national budget for failing to allocate enough resources to fast-track the Commission’s priorities. They point to delays in grid modernisation, underfunding of early-warning systems for floods and droughts, and a just transition fund that still feels more like a promise than a fully operational programme. The Commission itself acknowledges that implementation gaps remain, but argues that the 2026 agenda represents a genuine shift in mindset.
Gauteng and Tshwane: Water-Energy Stress Meets Fuel Hikes
The national picture is felt most acutely in Gauteng and Tshwane. Water reservoirs are under pressure from erratic rainfall, while Eskom’s grid remains vulnerable to both flooding of substations and drought-driven coal supply disruptions. At the same time, recent fuel-price spikes linked to global oil volatility are adding to household and business costs. The overlap is painful: communities already struggling with water shortages now face higher transport and electricity bills.
Local municipalities are watching the Presidential Climate Commission closely. If the Komati model can be scaled – turning old coal assets into new renewable and skills hubs – it could create the kind of resilient infrastructure these urban centres desperately need.
Disability-Inclusive Adaptation and Green Skills
A recent Cabinet report on disability-inclusive climate adaptation has added an important dimension to the debate. People with disabilities are often the most vulnerable during floods and droughts, yet they are frequently left out of planning. The report calls for universal design in early-warning systems, accessible evacuation centres and targeted support for disabled entrepreneurs in green sectors.
This ties directly into the green skills conversation. With youth unemployment high and university placement bottlenecks still unresolved, linking climate adaptation to education and training could create meaningful pathways. Green jobs in renewable installation, water management and climate-smart agriculture offer opportunities that go beyond traditional sectors. The Commission is pushing for these skills to be embedded in TVET colleges and university curricula, turning climate policy into a tool for social inclusion and economic participation.
The Road Ahead: Turning Whiplash into Resilience
Southern Africa’s flood-drought whiplash is not going away. With 2026 projected to be among the hottest years on record and La Niña patterns likely to amplify extremes, the region faces a future where these events are routine. The choice before policymakers is clear: continue treating climate change as an external threat to be managed, or seize it as the catalyst for a new industrial and social compact.
The Presidential Climate Commission’s 2026 agenda – with its focus on Komati redevelopment, grid resilience and just transition financing – represents a deliberate attempt to choose the latter path. If it succeeds, South Africa could show the region how to turn climate challenges into engines of growth. If it falters, the human and economic costs of the next flood or drought will be even higher.
For now, the immediate priority remains supporting those affected in Mozambique and preparing for whatever the next swing in the weather brings. But the deeper work – building policy that drives industrial growth while protecting the most vulnerable – is the real test of leadership in 2026 and beyond.