South Sudan is facing renewed warnings that the world’s youngest nation could slide back into full-scale conflict, as political tensions deepen, armed groups mobilize and a fragile peace agreement shows signs of unraveling.
The warnings come amid mounting frustration over stalled political reforms under the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement, which ended a brutal five-year civil war that killed nearly 400,000 people and displaced millions. Key provisions, including security sector reform and the unification of armed forces, remain largely unimplemented.
International monitors say delays to long-promised national elections, now repeatedly postponed, have intensified mistrust among rival factions. Localized violence has flared in several regions, particularly in Upper Nile and Jonglei states, where intercommunal clashes and armed confrontations have left hundreds dead over the past year.
The United Nations has warned that the continued presence of armed groups outside the unified national army poses a serious threat to stability. "The risk of miscalculation is growing," a senior UN official said, noting that political competition is increasingly being backed by military force rather than dialogue.
Economic pressures are compounding the crisis. South Sudan remains heavily dependent on oil revenues, while inflation, unpaid salaries and widespread food insecurity have fueled public anger. According to humanitarian agencies, more than two-thirds of the population now require aid, one of the highest rates in the world.
Regional actors and Western donors have urged President Salva Kiir’s government and opposition leaders to recommit to the peace process, warning that a return to war would have devastating consequences for civilians and further destabilize East Africa. Analysts say sustained diplomatic pressure and credible election preparations are critical to preventing another collapse.